Keren called us Thursday night from her parents' home in Rishon. The Army gave her time off but is requiring that she keep her cell phone on and stay within two hours traveling time of her base. Meanwhile, her classes at Hebrew University are still in session and she has to try to keep up by internet. The Professors are posting lecture notes, readings and assignments and giving the students who have been called up extra time to hand in papers. But finals won't be pushed back and Keren hasn't a clue when she will get back to campus. Since she can be called at any moment she can't put her uniforms in the wash. On the up side she may make it to Tel Aviv this weekend so we (and the boyfriend) will see for ourselves that she's OK.
I said to Keren that here in Tel Aviv you don't know there's a war on unless you turn on the TV. She said that's why Tel Aviv is called "The Bubble."
Daniel, is in the north for more training and, with the rest of his part of the Golani Brigade, waiting to learn whether Hezbollah is really sitting this one out.
Last night (Friday) we went to Jerusalem to have Shabbat dinner with my cousins. Just before dinner Tamar called from her base on the Israeli side of the border where Gaza, Egypt and Israel all meet. She is complaining because they have assigned her to 16 hours of kitchen duty over the weekend. Her mother, Raina, remarks that this is a lot better than guard duty. Raina, a doctor who describes herself as a leftist, has also reached the conclusion that enough is enough and Israel is right to be going after Hamas. She and Zvika are both unhappy about civilians being hurt but see no way to avoid it. Of course, Hamas could stop firing rockets.
Meanwhile, Gal's Dad has decided that I should write more about sports and will be taking me to a more senior club level game. This should be fun and I'll definitely get another blog out of it.
Read more!
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Recession Comes To Israel, So We Go To Lunch
NOTE: I started writing this in early December and kept getting distracted. So today, Jan 6, with all the company gone, I'm going to try to push this and an observation about the elections out the electronic door.
6 January 2009
Tel Aviv
The Global Recession has made its way to Israel. It took a while to get here since Israeli banks managed to avoid the subprime mess by taking the unique position that loans should only be made to people who have the means to repay them. The Tel Aviv stock exchange held its value far longer than just about any other exchange on the planet. But, despite the efforts of some old line socialists, the business cycle has not been repealed and the downturn that swept through Europe has landed on these shores. The layoffs here are in the tens of thousands, as opposed to the US' hundreds of thousands, but given that the country only has 7 1/2 million people, that's a lot. Also, the cutbacks have included the high tech companies which is bad news. More bad news that hits your correspondent close to home is that more restaurants are closing than opening and others have cut back their hours. Also, from today's chat with a professional guide, tourism is falling off. Recent uptrends in tourist-related industries as well as the housing bubble have been driven by Europeans with lots of euros to burn. As you can imagine, this source of revenue is drying up.
Added to this is the daily bad news coming out of the collapse of Bernie Madoff's ponzi scheme. Israeli institutions receive substantial funding from US charities and individuals:the same charities and individuals whose endowments have disappeared in Madoff's black hole. Facing a cutback in social programs and educational grants at the same time as the country falls into the recession is a double hit that poor people and students can ill afford.
On the optimistic side (Ben Gurion famously said that to be a Zionist you have to be an optimist), this is a not the "perfect storm" that plagues the US economy. The financial system here is in no danger of collapse. Nothing comparable to the potential impact of a GM or Citigroup bankruptcy is looming. This is more like a "normal" down cycle. No one knows how deep this can go or for how long. Israel's economy is tied to trade with the US and EU so a recovery there will give a boost to a recovery here. Meanwhile, the government has been taking steps to shore up the social safety net.
Good food and drink with friends may not cure all that ails you but, afterwards, you either feel better or you just don't care (which is almost as good). I share this way of dealing with life's vicissitudes with many if not most of you Usual Suspects. Back in the day when I plied my trade as a Manhattan-based attorney, in the event of some transportation meltdown caused by bad timing, bad weather or some other natural or man made disaster, my personal disaster plan was to find a really good restaurant with a decent wine list (and/or draft beers) and dig in until the disaster abated. Feeling much better about life, I would eventually get a car service, cab or train to take me home with no hassle. There I would sleep it off until the next round of hunting and gathering. This is also a good way to deal with a world-wide recession. Using your credit card helps get the international financial system going again (and is good for my Visa stock).
Not long before we returned to Israel we were providing a car, driver and comic relief to our friend JoAnne who was moving her law office, home and self from New York to Jerusalem While trying to drive from Manhattan to Forest Hills via the Midtown Tunnel we got stuck in a classic New York holiday season evening rush hour traffic jam from hell. In a traffic-jam-from-hell a 20 minute drive can take 2 to 3 hours. As we sat in a barely moving car, I discovered that JoAnne and I use the same Manhattan Disaster Plan. For those of you who still need to get in and out of mid-town Manhattan, try Soho (glatt kosher nouveau meat) in the lobby of the Sony Building. Other recommendations are Le Marais and Prime Grill. These are places best frequented in the company of a partner or senior executive who can charge it to the firm.
JoAnne has made Aliyah and now resides in an apartment in the German Colony neighborhood of Jerusalem. She is currently learning Hebrew, teaching her grandchildren how to paint, practicing law and becoming a Jerusalemite. Her home turf is a totally lovely apartment on Emek Refaim, the main drag in one of Jerusalem's "hot" neighborhoods, which she is decorating in a spare Israeli style. Less clutter is more.
While we had not tightly scheduled this year's sojourn, high on our list of "must do's" is making the rounds with Mauricio and playing with JoAnne. So, when Mauricio invited us to join him on his rounds in Jerusalem, we jumped at the chance for a two-fer. The day was going really well. Mauricio's main goal was to collect checks from a few customers in the Old City. On our way in we stopped to take the two-bit tour of Jo Anne's apartment and invite her out to lunch. Jo Anne was happy to go with us to the Old City since she needed to buy an appropriate religious icon for a sick Christian friend. An item we, being rockabilly fans of a certain age, quickly started referring to as The Plastic Jesus. As we drove into the Jewish Quarter the heavens opened up, the sun shone down and, miracle of miracles, Mauricio found a legal parking space near the Zion Gate. Who says G-d doesn't smile on her Jews? I interrupted Liz and Jo Anne, who were deep into the economic implications of the Plastic Jesus market to make them just focus on where we were standing. Being inside the walls can work its magic, even on some type-A lawyers from NYC.
Mauricio led us on a tour of his clients' locations and, to make the day even better, collected some checks (nothing helps get you through the recession better than getting paid) and took us to the Quarter Cafe (owned by a client) where he took over the espresso machine and produced four cups of Cafe Mauricio. The Quarter Cafe is at the Old City's highest point before you start walking down into the Kotel Plaza. You sit and drink your coffee at eye level with the Al Aqsa Mosque and look out over the hills west of the Old City. Nice view on a sunny day.
Mauricio successfully completed his business. Jo Anne was not as successful as the merchant refused to come down on what we all thought was a ridiculously high price for a Plastic Jesus (maybe the recession hasn't yet hit the Old City schlock shops). So we got back in the car and headed to La Guta, a highly regarded French/Oriental bistro in the center of the new city.It's expensive for dinner but has a businessman's lunch we wanted to try. And, of course, Mauricio knows the owner. The day was still going great as, after fighting our way through the obligatory traffic-jam-from-hell, a daily feature of central Jerusalem, we found a second lawful parking space. Those of you who have to drive in and out of major cities know that finding two lawful spaces in the space of an hour or two makes you feel invulnerable to all evil. But then our luck ran out.
We got to La Guta and it was closed. Not for good but the owner told us that there is just not enough business to justify opening before dinner during the week. Mind you, this is central, west Jerusalem on a sunny day in a month when the locals are gearing up for more chagim and the tourists should start coming in. We went to a second place, this time a fish joint, and it was also closed. The third place we tried, Eldad Vezehoo (French/Moroccan grill), was open. The conversation tended toward the Hebrew as JoAnne is trying hard to learn by speaking (which is actually a challenge when you live on Emek Refaim where you can go through much of your day hearing only English) and Mauricio was just as happy to give her a workout. As usual, once Mauricio and I can see each other's hands we are able to communicate.
So there you have it. The recession has clearly hit daily life here. Fortunately, my way of dealing with adversity seems to work as well in Israel as in the US, so I expect we'll be fine. And I'll report on La Guta when we circle back and try it for dinner.
Read more!
6 January 2009
Tel Aviv
The Global Recession has made its way to Israel. It took a while to get here since Israeli banks managed to avoid the subprime mess by taking the unique position that loans should only be made to people who have the means to repay them. The Tel Aviv stock exchange held its value far longer than just about any other exchange on the planet. But, despite the efforts of some old line socialists, the business cycle has not been repealed and the downturn that swept through Europe has landed on these shores. The layoffs here are in the tens of thousands, as opposed to the US' hundreds of thousands, but given that the country only has 7 1/2 million people, that's a lot. Also, the cutbacks have included the high tech companies which is bad news. More bad news that hits your correspondent close to home is that more restaurants are closing than opening and others have cut back their hours. Also, from today's chat with a professional guide, tourism is falling off. Recent uptrends in tourist-related industries as well as the housing bubble have been driven by Europeans with lots of euros to burn. As you can imagine, this source of revenue is drying up.
Added to this is the daily bad news coming out of the collapse of Bernie Madoff's ponzi scheme. Israeli institutions receive substantial funding from US charities and individuals:the same charities and individuals whose endowments have disappeared in Madoff's black hole. Facing a cutback in social programs and educational grants at the same time as the country falls into the recession is a double hit that poor people and students can ill afford.
On the optimistic side (Ben Gurion famously said that to be a Zionist you have to be an optimist), this is a not the "perfect storm" that plagues the US economy. The financial system here is in no danger of collapse. Nothing comparable to the potential impact of a GM or Citigroup bankruptcy is looming. This is more like a "normal" down cycle. No one knows how deep this can go or for how long. Israel's economy is tied to trade with the US and EU so a recovery there will give a boost to a recovery here. Meanwhile, the government has been taking steps to shore up the social safety net.
Good food and drink with friends may not cure all that ails you but, afterwards, you either feel better or you just don't care (which is almost as good). I share this way of dealing with life's vicissitudes with many if not most of you Usual Suspects. Back in the day when I plied my trade as a Manhattan-based attorney, in the event of some transportation meltdown caused by bad timing, bad weather or some other natural or man made disaster, my personal disaster plan was to find a really good restaurant with a decent wine list (and/or draft beers) and dig in until the disaster abated. Feeling much better about life, I would eventually get a car service, cab or train to take me home with no hassle. There I would sleep it off until the next round of hunting and gathering. This is also a good way to deal with a world-wide recession. Using your credit card helps get the international financial system going again (and is good for my Visa stock).
Not long before we returned to Israel we were providing a car, driver and comic relief to our friend JoAnne who was moving her law office, home and self from New York to Jerusalem While trying to drive from Manhattan to Forest Hills via the Midtown Tunnel we got stuck in a classic New York holiday season evening rush hour traffic jam from hell. In a traffic-jam-from-hell a 20 minute drive can take 2 to 3 hours. As we sat in a barely moving car, I discovered that JoAnne and I use the same Manhattan Disaster Plan. For those of you who still need to get in and out of mid-town Manhattan, try Soho (glatt kosher nouveau meat) in the lobby of the Sony Building. Other recommendations are Le Marais and Prime Grill. These are places best frequented in the company of a partner or senior executive who can charge it to the firm.
JoAnne has made Aliyah and now resides in an apartment in the German Colony neighborhood of Jerusalem. She is currently learning Hebrew, teaching her grandchildren how to paint, practicing law and becoming a Jerusalemite. Her home turf is a totally lovely apartment on Emek Refaim, the main drag in one of Jerusalem's "hot" neighborhoods, which she is decorating in a spare Israeli style. Less clutter is more.
While we had not tightly scheduled this year's sojourn, high on our list of "must do's" is making the rounds with Mauricio and playing with JoAnne. So, when Mauricio invited us to join him on his rounds in Jerusalem, we jumped at the chance for a two-fer. The day was going really well. Mauricio's main goal was to collect checks from a few customers in the Old City. On our way in we stopped to take the two-bit tour of Jo Anne's apartment and invite her out to lunch. Jo Anne was happy to go with us to the Old City since she needed to buy an appropriate religious icon for a sick Christian friend. An item we, being rockabilly fans of a certain age, quickly started referring to as The Plastic Jesus. As we drove into the Jewish Quarter the heavens opened up, the sun shone down and, miracle of miracles, Mauricio found a legal parking space near the Zion Gate. Who says G-d doesn't smile on her Jews? I interrupted Liz and Jo Anne, who were deep into the economic implications of the Plastic Jesus market to make them just focus on where we were standing. Being inside the walls can work its magic, even on some type-A lawyers from NYC.
Mauricio led us on a tour of his clients' locations and, to make the day even better, collected some checks (nothing helps get you through the recession better than getting paid) and took us to the Quarter Cafe (owned by a client) where he took over the espresso machine and produced four cups of Cafe Mauricio. The Quarter Cafe is at the Old City's highest point before you start walking down into the Kotel Plaza. You sit and drink your coffee at eye level with the Al Aqsa Mosque and look out over the hills west of the Old City. Nice view on a sunny day.
Mauricio successfully completed his business. Jo Anne was not as successful as the merchant refused to come down on what we all thought was a ridiculously high price for a Plastic Jesus (maybe the recession hasn't yet hit the Old City schlock shops). So we got back in the car and headed to La Guta, a highly regarded French/Oriental bistro in the center of the new city.It's expensive for dinner but has a businessman's lunch we wanted to try. And, of course, Mauricio knows the owner. The day was still going great as, after fighting our way through the obligatory traffic-jam-from-hell, a daily feature of central Jerusalem, we found a second lawful parking space. Those of you who have to drive in and out of major cities know that finding two lawful spaces in the space of an hour or two makes you feel invulnerable to all evil. But then our luck ran out.
We got to La Guta and it was closed. Not for good but the owner told us that there is just not enough business to justify opening before dinner during the week. Mind you, this is central, west Jerusalem on a sunny day in a month when the locals are gearing up for more chagim and the tourists should start coming in. We went to a second place, this time a fish joint, and it was also closed. The third place we tried, Eldad Vezehoo (French/Moroccan grill), was open. The conversation tended toward the Hebrew as JoAnne is trying hard to learn by speaking (which is actually a challenge when you live on Emek Refaim where you can go through much of your day hearing only English) and Mauricio was just as happy to give her a workout. As usual, once Mauricio and I can see each other's hands we are able to communicate.
So there you have it. The recession has clearly hit daily life here. Fortunately, my way of dealing with adversity seems to work as well in Israel as in the US, so I expect we'll be fine. And I'll report on La Guta when we circle back and try it for dinner.
Read more!
Elections? What Elections?
Last autumn, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert resigned, sort of. Olmert agreed to leave office as soon as a successor could take office. Tzipi Livni, the Foreign Minister who won the Kadima election for a new leader, tried and failed to form a new government. And so new elections were called and scheduled for February 9, 2009. The various parties have since held primaries (another American import which has all the cultural attraction of McDonald's) and started campaigning. The response of the public has been underwhelming. Other than a hard core of true believers, most people seem to be ignoring the elections. One Israeli friend intends to vote for Livni because he really doesn't like Bibi, won't consider Barack. Livni will get his vote because, as far as he knows, she hasn't yet stolen his money or lied to him. Others are leaning toward Meretz but don't seem to think that Meretz will wind up in the government. I think a big reason that there's no enthusiasm for any candidate or party is a general belief that new elections will not change anything. There's that word again, "change."
Israeli politicians have adopted the form of American politics without the substance. I know. Its hard to imagine American politics with less substance. What's a negative value for next-to-nothing? Without any indication that they would actually listen to adversaries, think about alternatives and try to craft creative ways to deal with major problems, a la Obama, Israeli politicians have simply been adopting Obama's style. The one exception is Ehud Barack who is trying to emulate the John McCain who used to go on The Daily Show and be funny.
Israel is getting away from emphasizing party ideology (and loyalty) to focusing on individual candidates. And yet the country still elects governments based on votes for party lists and not for individual representatives. As they say in the Talmud, you might think that an election here would be an opportunity for a serious debate on critical matters like education, the environment, economic recovery and, oh yes, how to deal with Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. But you would be wrong.
Bibi Netanyahu has a web sight that looks exactly like the Obama campaign site, right down to the requests for donors and volunteers (except its in Hebrew and uses a different slogan - "Together We Can Succeed"). Bibi, and the hard line rightists who make up a significant portion of the Likud list, are among the last people you would expect to get into the sort of dialogues with adversaries advocated by Obama. But hey, its an election, not a search for truth.
Meanwhile, Tzipi Livni is "ready for change." From what to what remains a mystery but if it comes, she's ready. The third major player, Ehud Barack, has been fighting an image problem. His stinks. Barack is tying to improve his image by using reverse psychology. The country is plastered with ads listing all his shortcomings but proclaiming that he's a Leader. He's not kind, sympathetic, funny, etc, he's a Leader. If you want a heartless automaton to be your Leader, he's your guy. To try to make himself appear more human, Barack went on Israel's leading comedy show (think of John McCain on Saturday Night Live). The next morning he started bombing the Gaza Strip back into the pre-Canaanite age.
But the prize for the most cynical ripoff of Obama's style without adopting any of the substance has to go to Shas. Shas is a right wing Haredi (ultraorthodox) party that cares nothing for anyone outside its narrow community. Shas cares about funding its own Yeshivas and increasing welfare payments to nonworking Haredi families having more children than they can possibly afford to support, period. A Shas government would have nothing to say to the general public (other than that any divorce or conversion done by a non-Shas Rabbi would be invalid). The rest of Israel can drift out to sea for all they care. So, of course, they're the ones shouting "Yes, We Can!"
As usual, the outcome of the elections will depend upon the security situation. If Livni and Barack produce something that looks like a "victory" in Operation Cast Lead, the center-right coalition might stay in power. Otherwise the perceived size of Israel's loss to Hamas will be directly proportional to the right wing majority that will take over the Knesset, making Bibi the next Prime Minister. Yes, Hamas is probably in a better position to pick the next Prime Minister than Joe Israeli Voter. So much for change. Read more!
Israeli politicians have adopted the form of American politics without the substance. I know. Its hard to imagine American politics with less substance. What's a negative value for next-to-nothing? Without any indication that they would actually listen to adversaries, think about alternatives and try to craft creative ways to deal with major problems, a la Obama, Israeli politicians have simply been adopting Obama's style. The one exception is Ehud Barack who is trying to emulate the John McCain who used to go on The Daily Show and be funny.
Israel is getting away from emphasizing party ideology (and loyalty) to focusing on individual candidates. And yet the country still elects governments based on votes for party lists and not for individual representatives. As they say in the Talmud, you might think that an election here would be an opportunity for a serious debate on critical matters like education, the environment, economic recovery and, oh yes, how to deal with Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. But you would be wrong.
Bibi Netanyahu has a web sight that looks exactly like the Obama campaign site, right down to the requests for donors and volunteers (except its in Hebrew and uses a different slogan - "Together We Can Succeed"). Bibi, and the hard line rightists who make up a significant portion of the Likud list, are among the last people you would expect to get into the sort of dialogues with adversaries advocated by Obama. But hey, its an election, not a search for truth.
Meanwhile, Tzipi Livni is "ready for change." From what to what remains a mystery but if it comes, she's ready. The third major player, Ehud Barack, has been fighting an image problem. His stinks. Barack is tying to improve his image by using reverse psychology. The country is plastered with ads listing all his shortcomings but proclaiming that he's a Leader. He's not kind, sympathetic, funny, etc, he's a Leader. If you want a heartless automaton to be your Leader, he's your guy. To try to make himself appear more human, Barack went on Israel's leading comedy show (think of John McCain on Saturday Night Live). The next morning he started bombing the Gaza Strip back into the pre-Canaanite age.
But the prize for the most cynical ripoff of Obama's style without adopting any of the substance has to go to Shas. Shas is a right wing Haredi (ultraorthodox) party that cares nothing for anyone outside its narrow community. Shas cares about funding its own Yeshivas and increasing welfare payments to nonworking Haredi families having more children than they can possibly afford to support, period. A Shas government would have nothing to say to the general public (other than that any divorce or conversion done by a non-Shas Rabbi would be invalid). The rest of Israel can drift out to sea for all they care. So, of course, they're the ones shouting "Yes, We Can!"
As usual, the outcome of the elections will depend upon the security situation. If Livni and Barack produce something that looks like a "victory" in Operation Cast Lead, the center-right coalition might stay in power. Otherwise the perceived size of Israel's loss to Hamas will be directly proportional to the right wing majority that will take over the Knesset, making Bibi the next Prime Minister. Yes, Hamas is probably in a better position to pick the next Prime Minister than Joe Israeli Voter. So much for change. Read more!
Monday, January 5, 2009
This Is How You Live In Israel - Part 1
Keren, Gal and Tamar are among our Israeli friends and family. These three exceptional young women are at different stages of their Army duty. Keren is a reserve officer subject to being called up, Gal has finished active duty and is in the year immediately after service when the Army tries not to call you back. Tamar is on active duty.
Keren, my Yemenite daughter, has been attending Hebrew University on Mt. Scopus in Jerusalem. We saw her Saturday night (Jan. 3) at a dinner party thrown by Gideon and Pnina, Molly's in-laws. As of 10 pm Saturday night Keren had not been called up and thought she might be heading back to school. Sunday morning, when her biological father, Mauricio, came by to help me stock up on coffee and wine and told me that, very late at night, Keren was called up. She reported for duty Sunday morning. We saw Keren in Tel Aviv Sunday night, She got the night off. This country is so small the kids can commute to the war front. Today (Monday Jan. 5) she's somewhere along the Gaza border but can't tell us exactly where or what she's doing. Her college studies are on hold for an indefinite period of time. Meanwhile her brother, Daniel, is in the Golani Brigade, an elite combat unit. He was somewhere on the Golan Heights but has been moved to a training area in the Negev. We don't know what he's training for but are pretty sure we'd rather have the war end before he gets a chance to do it.
Mauricio shrugs and says that this is how you live in Israel. In 1950, when he was 2 years old, his family moved here from Italy. He remembers the 1956 war, he fought in the Sinai in 1967 and, in 1981, rode a mobile heavy mortar into Beirut. Almost every Israeli has a similar story.
Here in Tel Aviv, unless you seek out the occasional anti-war demonstration or stay glued to the broadcast news you wouldn't know there's a war going on. Last Friday we joined the Rabinowitz family at the basketball game between the 11-12 year old teams from Hapoel Ussishkin and Hatikva. The game was at the Hatikva community center, the neighborhood where Becky and Gal lived together a few years ago. Gal's youngest brother, Yonaton, a very good player, was the high scorer in a lopsided victory. Gal's Dad, Danny, is a basketball player who supports his family by working as a University professor. He was clearly happy to have his son excel at his game and to have his daughter at home. Gal may get to miss the current war, keep working to save money and take her post-Army trip to the Far East.
Tamar is Marcia and David's granddaughter, making her my third or fourth cousin (its been too long since law school to remember degrees of consanguinity). Tamar is on active duty. She's been at a base close to the junction of Israel, Gaza and Egypt but may have been moved north and inland. Her usual Army job involves counseling soldiers. So she may not be on the front line (wherever that is today) but she is probably in an area within Hamas' missile range.
Liz, Becky and I have watched the TV channel on which the Homefront Command broadcasts instructions (in Hebrew, English, Arabic and Russian) for dealing with missile attacks. Within 40 kilometers of Gaza, Israelis are asked to stay within a certain distance of a shelter or safe room. The response time varies depending upon how far you are from the missile launching sites. Schools within the danger zone have been closed and outdoor gatherings are banned. We have been told how to select the safest room in the apartment. In the event we can't reach a shelter or don't have a safe room (which we don't), we know how to select the safest room in the apartment. The Opera Tower's bomb shelter is on -3, the lowest garage/basement level, about 9 stories below us. I know where the stairwells are and which one is closest to the shelter. I don't expect to need this information but, having once worked in the World Trade Center, I know it's information I want to have on my frontal lobe, just in case.
The international press and the usual pro-Palestinian whiners are much more concerned with the "civilian" casualties in Gaza than any injuries inflicted upon Israelis. We've been asking Israeli friends and relations about this. The general view is that its unfortunate that some people are caught in the middle but that Israel is right to do something about Hamas' attacks. One friend with a relative who was badly injured by a Grad missile hitting Ashkelon is not at all sympathetic. One relation is so upset that he's rethinking his relationship to the Zionist project. Others point out how Israel tries to warn Gazans before dropping bombs on residential buildings. I don't know if The Usual Suspects in the US know that Israel will call cell phones, drop leaflets and use other means to warn civilians that the building they are in or next to is about to be hit. They even drop small bombs near the building or blank charges that make a loud boom without deadly force before the actual attack. I find myself ambivalent about the fate of children who have been raised to celebrate the death of a Jew and aspire to wear bomb belts. I'd like to see them get a decent life but their parents are the ones who will have to stop the insanity and, frankly, they don't seem inclined to do that. As long as Hamas forces the choice to be our kids or their kids, I'm going to worry about our kids first.
Hamas has for years indiscriminately attacked and killed Israeli civilians and evidences not the least inclination to change its behavior. Israelis, for the most part, really are unhappy when noncombatants get hurt. Hamas could care less. What most of the "international community" wants to ignore when bemoaning the "humanitarian crisis" in Gaza is that one of the reasons the Gaza borders are usually closed is that Hamas has the habit of shelling any crossing at which Palestinians were trying to get into Israel to work or do business. They really do not care how many of their own people die for the cause. If they can't maneuver the Israelis into shooting Palestinians, they'll just do it themselves and say, with a straight face, that Israel forced them to do it. The Hamas leader who died with his four wives and 11 children deliberately ignored Israeli efforts to warn them to get out of harm's way. He would have died with 12 children but for the fact that he had already used one as a homicide bomber.
Its disgraceful how many seemingly intelligent adults refuse to acknowledge that maybe Hamas and its allies have some responsibility for current events. As a pleasant surprise, some Arab governments seem to have figured this out. Arabs accepting that fellow Arabs may actually be at fault is progress of sorts. But my favorite voice in the wilderness is the support Israel has received from the Czech President of the EU. The Czechs know something about self-defense and what can happen if you rely on the British, French and the rest of the "international community" to preserve your borders and protect your citizens. After 50 years of being ruled by Nazis and Stalinists, the Czechs know something about Israel's predicament.
So, how does this end? Well, officially, neither side wants a cease fire that "gives legitimacy" to the other. There is some slim possibility that reality will set in and both sides will find a way to claim victory and stand down. If Hamas survives and gets a truce under which Israel ultimately opens up the borders and seaport, they'll say that they won. Israel can claim victory if it survives (no other UN member gets its existence questioned, why is that?), rocket fire ceases and the smuggling tunnels are closed. As of tonight (Monday Jan 5) Israel has split Gaza into three sections and is clearly trying to achieve the sort of control it has asserted over the West Bank (which has been divided into four sections for a number of years). But Israel can't sustain its divide and conquer strategy with which it has had some success in the West Bank unless it permanently reoccupies Gaza. So, a bigger, albeit unlikely, victory for Israel would be to mortally wound Hamas and put Fatah back in control.
A big reason why the West Bank has been relatively quiet (except for the pogroms initiated by Jewish settlers) is that Fatah police, armed by the US and trained in Jordan, have been keeping Hamas and other Islamic terrorists under control. Amnesty International objects to the use of torture and targeted assassinations that continue to be part of the Fatah playbook but homicide bombings have been squelched. In return, Israeli troops have been pulled back from some population centers, allowing the locals to move about and do some business. The ironic business news of 2008 is that while the rest of the world sank into a deep recession the Palestinians' West Bank economy grew by about 12%. Now 12% of next to nothing isn't much but having the hotels in Bethlehem crowdedwith Christian pilgrims while Israeli Arabs go shopping in Jenin and Ramallah are hopeful signs. However, economic improvements will not, in the end, satisfy Palestinians' national aspirations or bring Israel any lasting peace. The gloomy statistic around here is that from 2005 to 2007 the largest Israeli population increase was the growth of West Bank settlers from 230,000 to 250,000. No segment of the Jewish population has that high a birth rate. This was not "natural growth" but deliberate expansion of the settlements. No matter what sort of cease fire gets worked out in Gaza, the seeds for the next generation's war are being sown.
Meanwhile, the weather has been pleasant and we've been out walking some of the city's more interesting neighborhoods with the Solomons (who left for home this evening), rediscovering some of our favorite restaurants, listening to some great jazz and generally having a very good time. Today, David Chamovitz gave us a tour of the cemetery on Trumpeldor, where many of Tel Aviv's streets and the faces on our Zionist sugar packets are buried. David keeps notes and newspaper clippings to educate the tourists and even waived his usual fee. We found the graves of Dizengoff (Tel Aviv's first mayor), Max Nordau (who never lived in Israel but whose bones were moved to a crypt formerly used by David's friend Joe to teach young Irgun members how to assemble weapons), Ahad Ha'Am, a number of city founders, the mass graves of people killed in the Arab riots of 1921 and 1929, a couple of the Irgun kids who fell in battle while still in their teens and artists like Bialik, Brenner, Reuven Rubin and Shoshana Demari (Israel's great lady of song). This is also how you live in Israel.
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Keren, my Yemenite daughter, has been attending Hebrew University on Mt. Scopus in Jerusalem. We saw her Saturday night (Jan. 3) at a dinner party thrown by Gideon and Pnina, Molly's in-laws. As of 10 pm Saturday night Keren had not been called up and thought she might be heading back to school. Sunday morning, when her biological father, Mauricio, came by to help me stock up on coffee and wine and told me that, very late at night, Keren was called up. She reported for duty Sunday morning. We saw Keren in Tel Aviv Sunday night, She got the night off. This country is so small the kids can commute to the war front. Today (Monday Jan. 5) she's somewhere along the Gaza border but can't tell us exactly where or what she's doing. Her college studies are on hold for an indefinite period of time. Meanwhile her brother, Daniel, is in the Golani Brigade, an elite combat unit. He was somewhere on the Golan Heights but has been moved to a training area in the Negev. We don't know what he's training for but are pretty sure we'd rather have the war end before he gets a chance to do it.
Mauricio shrugs and says that this is how you live in Israel. In 1950, when he was 2 years old, his family moved here from Italy. He remembers the 1956 war, he fought in the Sinai in 1967 and, in 1981, rode a mobile heavy mortar into Beirut. Almost every Israeli has a similar story.
Here in Tel Aviv, unless you seek out the occasional anti-war demonstration or stay glued to the broadcast news you wouldn't know there's a war going on. Last Friday we joined the Rabinowitz family at the basketball game between the 11-12 year old teams from Hapoel Ussishkin and Hatikva. The game was at the Hatikva community center, the neighborhood where Becky and Gal lived together a few years ago. Gal's youngest brother, Yonaton, a very good player, was the high scorer in a lopsided victory. Gal's Dad, Danny, is a basketball player who supports his family by working as a University professor. He was clearly happy to have his son excel at his game and to have his daughter at home. Gal may get to miss the current war, keep working to save money and take her post-Army trip to the Far East.
Tamar is Marcia and David's granddaughter, making her my third or fourth cousin (its been too long since law school to remember degrees of consanguinity). Tamar is on active duty. She's been at a base close to the junction of Israel, Gaza and Egypt but may have been moved north and inland. Her usual Army job involves counseling soldiers. So she may not be on the front line (wherever that is today) but she is probably in an area within Hamas' missile range.
Liz, Becky and I have watched the TV channel on which the Homefront Command broadcasts instructions (in Hebrew, English, Arabic and Russian) for dealing with missile attacks. Within 40 kilometers of Gaza, Israelis are asked to stay within a certain distance of a shelter or safe room. The response time varies depending upon how far you are from the missile launching sites. Schools within the danger zone have been closed and outdoor gatherings are banned. We have been told how to select the safest room in the apartment. In the event we can't reach a shelter or don't have a safe room (which we don't), we know how to select the safest room in the apartment. The Opera Tower's bomb shelter is on -3, the lowest garage/basement level, about 9 stories below us. I know where the stairwells are and which one is closest to the shelter. I don't expect to need this information but, having once worked in the World Trade Center, I know it's information I want to have on my frontal lobe, just in case.
The international press and the usual pro-Palestinian whiners are much more concerned with the "civilian" casualties in Gaza than any injuries inflicted upon Israelis. We've been asking Israeli friends and relations about this. The general view is that its unfortunate that some people are caught in the middle but that Israel is right to do something about Hamas' attacks. One friend with a relative who was badly injured by a Grad missile hitting Ashkelon is not at all sympathetic. One relation is so upset that he's rethinking his relationship to the Zionist project. Others point out how Israel tries to warn Gazans before dropping bombs on residential buildings. I don't know if The Usual Suspects in the US know that Israel will call cell phones, drop leaflets and use other means to warn civilians that the building they are in or next to is about to be hit. They even drop small bombs near the building or blank charges that make a loud boom without deadly force before the actual attack. I find myself ambivalent about the fate of children who have been raised to celebrate the death of a Jew and aspire to wear bomb belts. I'd like to see them get a decent life but their parents are the ones who will have to stop the insanity and, frankly, they don't seem inclined to do that. As long as Hamas forces the choice to be our kids or their kids, I'm going to worry about our kids first.
Hamas has for years indiscriminately attacked and killed Israeli civilians and evidences not the least inclination to change its behavior. Israelis, for the most part, really are unhappy when noncombatants get hurt. Hamas could care less. What most of the "international community" wants to ignore when bemoaning the "humanitarian crisis" in Gaza is that one of the reasons the Gaza borders are usually closed is that Hamas has the habit of shelling any crossing at which Palestinians were trying to get into Israel to work or do business. They really do not care how many of their own people die for the cause. If they can't maneuver the Israelis into shooting Palestinians, they'll just do it themselves and say, with a straight face, that Israel forced them to do it. The Hamas leader who died with his four wives and 11 children deliberately ignored Israeli efforts to warn them to get out of harm's way. He would have died with 12 children but for the fact that he had already used one as a homicide bomber.
Its disgraceful how many seemingly intelligent adults refuse to acknowledge that maybe Hamas and its allies have some responsibility for current events. As a pleasant surprise, some Arab governments seem to have figured this out. Arabs accepting that fellow Arabs may actually be at fault is progress of sorts. But my favorite voice in the wilderness is the support Israel has received from the Czech President of the EU. The Czechs know something about self-defense and what can happen if you rely on the British, French and the rest of the "international community" to preserve your borders and protect your citizens. After 50 years of being ruled by Nazis and Stalinists, the Czechs know something about Israel's predicament.
So, how does this end? Well, officially, neither side wants a cease fire that "gives legitimacy" to the other. There is some slim possibility that reality will set in and both sides will find a way to claim victory and stand down. If Hamas survives and gets a truce under which Israel ultimately opens up the borders and seaport, they'll say that they won. Israel can claim victory if it survives (no other UN member gets its existence questioned, why is that?), rocket fire ceases and the smuggling tunnels are closed. As of tonight (Monday Jan 5) Israel has split Gaza into three sections and is clearly trying to achieve the sort of control it has asserted over the West Bank (which has been divided into four sections for a number of years). But Israel can't sustain its divide and conquer strategy with which it has had some success in the West Bank unless it permanently reoccupies Gaza. So, a bigger, albeit unlikely, victory for Israel would be to mortally wound Hamas and put Fatah back in control.
A big reason why the West Bank has been relatively quiet (except for the pogroms initiated by Jewish settlers) is that Fatah police, armed by the US and trained in Jordan, have been keeping Hamas and other Islamic terrorists under control. Amnesty International objects to the use of torture and targeted assassinations that continue to be part of the Fatah playbook but homicide bombings have been squelched. In return, Israeli troops have been pulled back from some population centers, allowing the locals to move about and do some business. The ironic business news of 2008 is that while the rest of the world sank into a deep recession the Palestinians' West Bank economy grew by about 12%. Now 12% of next to nothing isn't much but having the hotels in Bethlehem crowdedwith Christian pilgrims while Israeli Arabs go shopping in Jenin and Ramallah are hopeful signs. However, economic improvements will not, in the end, satisfy Palestinians' national aspirations or bring Israel any lasting peace. The gloomy statistic around here is that from 2005 to 2007 the largest Israeli population increase was the growth of West Bank settlers from 230,000 to 250,000. No segment of the Jewish population has that high a birth rate. This was not "natural growth" but deliberate expansion of the settlements. No matter what sort of cease fire gets worked out in Gaza, the seeds for the next generation's war are being sown.
Meanwhile, the weather has been pleasant and we've been out walking some of the city's more interesting neighborhoods with the Solomons (who left for home this evening), rediscovering some of our favorite restaurants, listening to some great jazz and generally having a very good time. Today, David Chamovitz gave us a tour of the cemetery on Trumpeldor, where many of Tel Aviv's streets and the faces on our Zionist sugar packets are buried. David keeps notes and newspaper clippings to educate the tourists and even waived his usual fee. We found the graves of Dizengoff (Tel Aviv's first mayor), Max Nordau (who never lived in Israel but whose bones were moved to a crypt formerly used by David's friend Joe to teach young Irgun members how to assemble weapons), Ahad Ha'Am, a number of city founders, the mass graves of people killed in the Arab riots of 1921 and 1929, a couple of the Irgun kids who fell in battle while still in their teens and artists like Bialik, Brenner, Reuven Rubin and Shoshana Demari (Israel's great lady of song). This is also how you live in Israel.
Read more!
Monday, December 29, 2008
Here We Go Again
Tel Aviv
29 December 2008
Today we did not go to a Hadassah luncheon in Beersheva. And our tentative plans to head further south or up north with the friends visiting from the USA are going on a shelf. Too risky now that Hamas has missiles that can reach 30 to 40 kilometers into Israel and the Arab population is demonstrating against the attacks.
This morning a Hamas made-in-Iran missile hit a construction site in Ashkelon, killing one worker and wounding 12. The dead man is an Israeli Arab but Hamas doesn't care. The BBC/Sky News people are whining that since the casualty toll on the Gazan side is so much higher, Israel has to stop and the Gazans' attacks should be tolerated. Nonsense. 100 to 200 missiles and mortars launched indiscriminately at a civilian population (which is what has been going on since long before the so-called ceasefire ended) cannot be allowed to continue. I'm not noted for being a hawk or right winger but enough is enough. Yes, there are civilian casualties in Gaza because Hamas facilities are hopelessly interspersed with residences, schools and mosques. Resorting only to violence with no serious offer of benefits for good behavior won't solve anything. (Consider, for example, the 40 rockets launched at Israel from Gaza today.) I made this argument when Hamas first got elected, Israel shut down the borders in a futile attempt to topple the regime and violence from both sides escalated into the Second Lebanon War. (See blog posted July 15, 2006.). I'm about to make it again.
Hamas was elected to bring stability internally while prosecuting the war against Israel externally. Unlike most political parties it actually delivered on most of its promises by ending sectarian violence and continuing to attack Israel. If an election ever gets held again, Hamas will win again. Meanwhile, all those children being trained by the big Mickey Rat to want to grow up to wear bomb belts, will grow up and, given that they have no hope of doing anything else, will take over from their martyred elders and recommence firing the missiles, mortars and dispatching suicide bombers. As the Mayor of Sderot said, if the current offensive buys us two years of quiet (and for him quiet is 3 to 6 kassams a week) it will be a success.
So why won't violence alone work for either side? Hamas is not capable of militarily defeating the Israelis. Their only hope is that terrorism will compel the Israelis to leave, just like the British left. Guess what? Won't happen. If anything, the continued violence has pushed Israel to the right and fomented a siege mentality that will last for years. For its part, Israel really can't pound Gaza into submission. Why? Because such an action can only be interpreted as genocide. Also, Israel can't retake and garrison the Gaza Strip. All that does is touch off the Third Intifada and give Hezbollah an excuse to start bombing Israel's northern cities. To say nothing of an Israeli population that will not tolerate the number of casualties that will be suffered by the IDF. As the IDF's Chief of Staff said, he knows how to go into Gaza but does not know how he'd get out again.
So, once Israel has destroyed what it can that will be the end of things for now. Both sides will return to the daily grind of attacks and retaliations, with each side claiming that the other started the violence. As for Israel's ongoing efforts to economically choke Gazans into abandoning Hamas, this has had and will have about as much success as the USA has had in eliminating the Castro regime in Cuba. Inevitably there will be another escalation, as happened this week, and we'll go through the cycle all over again. As has been the case for the past 40 years, resorting to violence will not solve the underlying problem. It will punish some but not all of the bad guys and a lot of civilians caught in the middle but violence won't bring any long lasting relief to what ails Israel, let alone the Palestinians.
Before suggesting an alternative, let's review the seemingly impenetrable barriers to any kind of long term ceasefire. First, Livni and Barak were about to be voted out of office. The hail of Hamas missiles came close to being the final nail in their political coffins. Then they struck back. Big time. The latest polls have Kadima running neck and neck with Likud and Labor is back from the brink of extinction. If they manage to restore some semblance of quiet in southern Israel, Livni and Barak might get to remain in the government while Olmert may be remembered as something more than an incompetent hack and crook. (He might even get some time off his jail terms.). Their hope is that deep down inside most people don't want Bibi to be the next Prime Minister but have, until this week, felt they had no other choice. So, Livni and Barak are in no hurry to bring a quick end to Operation Castlead.
Hamas, for its part, is religiously committed to destroying any semblance of a Jewish state, making Palestine Judenfrei or becoming martyrs in the process. Hamas steadfastly refuses to deal with Israel, even for what would seem to be practical matters such as getting enough food and fuel into Gaza. Israel, rightfully, won't deal with or recognize a regime whose very existence is predicated on Israel's destruction. But, let's be honest, Hamas gives Israel an excuse to not get too serious about a real peace deal because that would mean getting serious about helping to build an economy in Gaza or, even more critically, pulling settlers out of the West Bank. Hamas enables Israel to say they have no partner for peace by reminding the world, every day, that they refuse to be a partner for peace. Hamas also does what it can (which is a lot) to undermine the efforts of any other Palestinian faction to make peace. As for enforcing a cease fire, Hamas was serious when they said that they would not be Israel's policeman.
It has been said around here that the last ceasefire fell apart (or never actually took effect, depending upon your point of view) because there never was a meeting of the minds as to its terms. Since nothing was put in writing and signed, everyone concerned was free to announce and follow their own version of the terms. And, as there was no agreed upon enforcement mechanism, the only recourse was to resume the violence. Hamas can claim that Israel violated the cease fire by not allowing enough trucks into Gaza or by not extending the cease fire to the West Bank. Israel, for its part, can simply point to the fact that the missile fire never completely stopped and that Hamas was still trying to tunnel its way into Israel. So, for any future deal to last, both sides are going to have to agree to specific terms, put them in writing, sign them (I would insist that both Haniyah in Gaza and Meschal in Damascus sign on behalf of Hamas) and come up with some way of enforcing the deal.
It is an understatement to say that its not easy to strike a deal between parties who will not recognize, negotiate or take action on behalf of one another. As for the latter, remember, in any negotiation, at some point each negotiator has to go back to his or her own people and convince them that the other side is right about some things and the people who hired or elected the negotiator have to make concessions. Can you name anyone from Likud, Kadima or Labor who is going to tell Israelis that Hamas may be right about something? And vice versa. So if any future deal is to have a future, Egypt, Turkey. the US under an Obama Administration, someone, has got to write down the deal, make the parties sign it and figure out how to enforce it. Good luck.
I actually think that Hamas is going to blink first. Its refusal to bend makes for great sermons in the Mosque but doesn't help Joe Gazan get a job or send his kids to school or keep Hamas' leadership alive. At some point Hamas will revert to form and seek a ceasefire to give it time to reorganize and reload. But the typical Hamas ceasefire is only to buy time. Not to live in peace. So, the question is how do you get to an indeterminately long ceasefire? Behavior modification. Make compliance really worthwhile while violations are punished without resort to renewed violence.
Israel should agree that in return for one week of no hostile acts (defined, in writing, as no missiles, mortars, human attacks in any form and no importation of weapons, known terrorists or people to train terrorists), the border crossings will be opened to up to 100 trucks a day. (Israel allowed up to 90 trucks as day during the last cease fire and Hamas objected that this was less than what was promised.) In addition to the trucks, unlimited crossings should be allowed for people in need of medical care and individuals with work permits (which permits will not be unreasonably denied). For every additional week of no hostile acts Hamas gets an additional 100 trucks until the Hamas number of 900 a day is reached. After that the truck limit is a combination of whatever the crossings can handle and how much is being shipped into and out of Gaza..
If 6 months go by with no hostile acts, Israel will allow Hamas to reopen the port in Gaza. Israel keeps the right to inspect ships coming and going for arms, wanted terrorists and the like but generally allows commerce to move along. After one year Israel opens an unrestricted means of egress between Gaza and the West Bank. At this point the cease fire is extended to the West Bank for both sides to obey. Also, private parties may establish joint business ventures, reopening the industrial zones along the border that have been shut down since the Second Intifada began. After two years, Gaza gets its international airport reopened. No plane can fly over Israeli airspace and every plane has to go straight west for 200 to 300 kilometers before making a turn.
Any violation by any Palestinian closes all of this down and the one week time clock starts ticking again. Any violation by Israel results in an appropriate economic sanction. In other words, no one gets to just start shooting again but there is a definite penalty for violating the ceasefire. Honoring the ceasefire would get Gazans some concrete rewards and make it worth their while to maintain the calm. Since the stick alone does not work, it's time to try adding a real carrot.
Read more!
29 December 2008
Today we did not go to a Hadassah luncheon in Beersheva. And our tentative plans to head further south or up north with the friends visiting from the USA are going on a shelf. Too risky now that Hamas has missiles that can reach 30 to 40 kilometers into Israel and the Arab population is demonstrating against the attacks.
This morning a Hamas made-in-Iran missile hit a construction site in Ashkelon, killing one worker and wounding 12. The dead man is an Israeli Arab but Hamas doesn't care. The BBC/Sky News people are whining that since the casualty toll on the Gazan side is so much higher, Israel has to stop and the Gazans' attacks should be tolerated. Nonsense. 100 to 200 missiles and mortars launched indiscriminately at a civilian population (which is what has been going on since long before the so-called ceasefire ended) cannot be allowed to continue. I'm not noted for being a hawk or right winger but enough is enough. Yes, there are civilian casualties in Gaza because Hamas facilities are hopelessly interspersed with residences, schools and mosques. Resorting only to violence with no serious offer of benefits for good behavior won't solve anything. (Consider, for example, the 40 rockets launched at Israel from Gaza today.) I made this argument when Hamas first got elected, Israel shut down the borders in a futile attempt to topple the regime and violence from both sides escalated into the Second Lebanon War. (See blog posted July 15, 2006.). I'm about to make it again.
Hamas was elected to bring stability internally while prosecuting the war against Israel externally. Unlike most political parties it actually delivered on most of its promises by ending sectarian violence and continuing to attack Israel. If an election ever gets held again, Hamas will win again. Meanwhile, all those children being trained by the big Mickey Rat to want to grow up to wear bomb belts, will grow up and, given that they have no hope of doing anything else, will take over from their martyred elders and recommence firing the missiles, mortars and dispatching suicide bombers. As the Mayor of Sderot said, if the current offensive buys us two years of quiet (and for him quiet is 3 to 6 kassams a week) it will be a success.
So why won't violence alone work for either side? Hamas is not capable of militarily defeating the Israelis. Their only hope is that terrorism will compel the Israelis to leave, just like the British left. Guess what? Won't happen. If anything, the continued violence has pushed Israel to the right and fomented a siege mentality that will last for years. For its part, Israel really can't pound Gaza into submission. Why? Because such an action can only be interpreted as genocide. Also, Israel can't retake and garrison the Gaza Strip. All that does is touch off the Third Intifada and give Hezbollah an excuse to start bombing Israel's northern cities. To say nothing of an Israeli population that will not tolerate the number of casualties that will be suffered by the IDF. As the IDF's Chief of Staff said, he knows how to go into Gaza but does not know how he'd get out again.
So, once Israel has destroyed what it can that will be the end of things for now. Both sides will return to the daily grind of attacks and retaliations, with each side claiming that the other started the violence. As for Israel's ongoing efforts to economically choke Gazans into abandoning Hamas, this has had and will have about as much success as the USA has had in eliminating the Castro regime in Cuba. Inevitably there will be another escalation, as happened this week, and we'll go through the cycle all over again. As has been the case for the past 40 years, resorting to violence will not solve the underlying problem. It will punish some but not all of the bad guys and a lot of civilians caught in the middle but violence won't bring any long lasting relief to what ails Israel, let alone the Palestinians.
Before suggesting an alternative, let's review the seemingly impenetrable barriers to any kind of long term ceasefire. First, Livni and Barak were about to be voted out of office. The hail of Hamas missiles came close to being the final nail in their political coffins. Then they struck back. Big time. The latest polls have Kadima running neck and neck with Likud and Labor is back from the brink of extinction. If they manage to restore some semblance of quiet in southern Israel, Livni and Barak might get to remain in the government while Olmert may be remembered as something more than an incompetent hack and crook. (He might even get some time off his jail terms.). Their hope is that deep down inside most people don't want Bibi to be the next Prime Minister but have, until this week, felt they had no other choice. So, Livni and Barak are in no hurry to bring a quick end to Operation Castlead.
Hamas, for its part, is religiously committed to destroying any semblance of a Jewish state, making Palestine Judenfrei or becoming martyrs in the process. Hamas steadfastly refuses to deal with Israel, even for what would seem to be practical matters such as getting enough food and fuel into Gaza. Israel, rightfully, won't deal with or recognize a regime whose very existence is predicated on Israel's destruction. But, let's be honest, Hamas gives Israel an excuse to not get too serious about a real peace deal because that would mean getting serious about helping to build an economy in Gaza or, even more critically, pulling settlers out of the West Bank. Hamas enables Israel to say they have no partner for peace by reminding the world, every day, that they refuse to be a partner for peace. Hamas also does what it can (which is a lot) to undermine the efforts of any other Palestinian faction to make peace. As for enforcing a cease fire, Hamas was serious when they said that they would not be Israel's policeman.
It has been said around here that the last ceasefire fell apart (or never actually took effect, depending upon your point of view) because there never was a meeting of the minds as to its terms. Since nothing was put in writing and signed, everyone concerned was free to announce and follow their own version of the terms. And, as there was no agreed upon enforcement mechanism, the only recourse was to resume the violence. Hamas can claim that Israel violated the cease fire by not allowing enough trucks into Gaza or by not extending the cease fire to the West Bank. Israel, for its part, can simply point to the fact that the missile fire never completely stopped and that Hamas was still trying to tunnel its way into Israel. So, for any future deal to last, both sides are going to have to agree to specific terms, put them in writing, sign them (I would insist that both Haniyah in Gaza and Meschal in Damascus sign on behalf of Hamas) and come up with some way of enforcing the deal.
It is an understatement to say that its not easy to strike a deal between parties who will not recognize, negotiate or take action on behalf of one another. As for the latter, remember, in any negotiation, at some point each negotiator has to go back to his or her own people and convince them that the other side is right about some things and the people who hired or elected the negotiator have to make concessions. Can you name anyone from Likud, Kadima or Labor who is going to tell Israelis that Hamas may be right about something? And vice versa. So if any future deal is to have a future, Egypt, Turkey. the US under an Obama Administration, someone, has got to write down the deal, make the parties sign it and figure out how to enforce it. Good luck.
I actually think that Hamas is going to blink first. Its refusal to bend makes for great sermons in the Mosque but doesn't help Joe Gazan get a job or send his kids to school or keep Hamas' leadership alive. At some point Hamas will revert to form and seek a ceasefire to give it time to reorganize and reload. But the typical Hamas ceasefire is only to buy time. Not to live in peace. So, the question is how do you get to an indeterminately long ceasefire? Behavior modification. Make compliance really worthwhile while violations are punished without resort to renewed violence.
Israel should agree that in return for one week of no hostile acts (defined, in writing, as no missiles, mortars, human attacks in any form and no importation of weapons, known terrorists or people to train terrorists), the border crossings will be opened to up to 100 trucks a day. (Israel allowed up to 90 trucks as day during the last cease fire and Hamas objected that this was less than what was promised.) In addition to the trucks, unlimited crossings should be allowed for people in need of medical care and individuals with work permits (which permits will not be unreasonably denied). For every additional week of no hostile acts Hamas gets an additional 100 trucks until the Hamas number of 900 a day is reached. After that the truck limit is a combination of whatever the crossings can handle and how much is being shipped into and out of Gaza..
If 6 months go by with no hostile acts, Israel will allow Hamas to reopen the port in Gaza. Israel keeps the right to inspect ships coming and going for arms, wanted terrorists and the like but generally allows commerce to move along. After one year Israel opens an unrestricted means of egress between Gaza and the West Bank. At this point the cease fire is extended to the West Bank for both sides to obey. Also, private parties may establish joint business ventures, reopening the industrial zones along the border that have been shut down since the Second Intifada began. After two years, Gaza gets its international airport reopened. No plane can fly over Israeli airspace and every plane has to go straight west for 200 to 300 kilometers before making a turn.
Any violation by any Palestinian closes all of this down and the one week time clock starts ticking again. Any violation by Israel results in an appropriate economic sanction. In other words, no one gets to just start shooting again but there is a definite penalty for violating the ceasefire. Honoring the ceasefire would get Gazans some concrete rewards and make it worth their while to maintain the calm. Since the stick alone does not work, it's time to try adding a real carrot.
Read more!
Thursday, December 25, 2008
How We Spent Yom Hag Hamoled
Last night (December 24) Liz and took our visiting friends, Burt and Alice, to Schmuel's, where we met up with our Israeli friends, Mauricio and Nurit. Burt and Alice arrived in Israel that morning. We fed them lunch and sent them off for a nap. We woke them a few hours later, fed them dinner (with potato latkes) and hauled them off to Schmuel's. We are very cool friends.
I wrote about Schmuel's last year when Mauricio got me warmed up for my Super Bowl all nighter. Schmuel has lately gone on a Brazilian music kick with a wonderfully talented trio playing on Fridays and other holiday evenings. Last night was the last concert for the lead singer, Nillson, who is going home to Brazil to pursue acting gigs. The group plays bossa nova, samba and lots of other mellow Brazilian dance tunes, some of which they wrote themselves. Listening to this under Schmuel's crusader arches is a transcendent experience. The crowd attracted to the music is largely Brazilian plus locals who know what's good. To get a better feel for the place than I can convey please check out www.mazalarieh5.blogspot.com for photos and music clips.
To protect the band, dancers and my drinks from the winds and rain, Schmuel has made large curtains out of coffee bean sacks provided by Mauricio. In addition to being Brazilian music night, it was also the fourth night of Hanukah and also the eve of Yom Hag Hamoled (The Day of The Festival of the Birth). As if Tel Avivans need an excuse to party.
OK, so everyone is merrily drinking and smoking their way through the evening. Lots of smiling faces and mellow dancing. Around 11pm the band takes a break. Everyone's attention is called to the bar where Schmuel and Nillson are about to light the menorah that has taken up a prominent place all evening. Schmuel has put on a kippah and holds a prayer book (kept under the bar? kept with his stash?). He recites the blessings while Nillson lights the candles. The entire crowd of about 40 pleasantly inebriated people joins in singing Maoz Tsur (Rock of Ages) to a Samba beat. We really love this country.
Today, Liz and I got up at 5:30am, caught an early bus to Jerusalem to attend Joshua's Bar Mitzvah (Becky's friend Jesse's younger brother). Trust me, functioning on 4 1/2 hours sleep with a hangover is a young man's game. Nevertheless, the service was just fine (Joshua davened, read Torah and gave a good speech) The brunch was delicious. This all took place in the Mount Zion Hotel. The hotel doesn't seem to get a lot of buzz. Its built into a hill just down the road from the wall of the Old City. The view alone is worth the 5 stars this place gets in the guides. Family and friends from Israel, New Jersey and Skokie IL gathered together and had a fine old time.
This is not my vacation, this is now how I live.
Happy Holidays to You All. Read more!
I wrote about Schmuel's last year when Mauricio got me warmed up for my Super Bowl all nighter. Schmuel has lately gone on a Brazilian music kick with a wonderfully talented trio playing on Fridays and other holiday evenings. Last night was the last concert for the lead singer, Nillson, who is going home to Brazil to pursue acting gigs. The group plays bossa nova, samba and lots of other mellow Brazilian dance tunes, some of which they wrote themselves. Listening to this under Schmuel's crusader arches is a transcendent experience. The crowd attracted to the music is largely Brazilian plus locals who know what's good. To get a better feel for the place than I can convey please check out www.mazalarieh5.blogspot.com for photos and music clips.
To protect the band, dancers and my drinks from the winds and rain, Schmuel has made large curtains out of coffee bean sacks provided by Mauricio. In addition to being Brazilian music night, it was also the fourth night of Hanukah and also the eve of Yom Hag Hamoled (The Day of The Festival of the Birth). As if Tel Avivans need an excuse to party.
OK, so everyone is merrily drinking and smoking their way through the evening. Lots of smiling faces and mellow dancing. Around 11pm the band takes a break. Everyone's attention is called to the bar where Schmuel and Nillson are about to light the menorah that has taken up a prominent place all evening. Schmuel has put on a kippah and holds a prayer book (kept under the bar? kept with his stash?). He recites the blessings while Nillson lights the candles. The entire crowd of about 40 pleasantly inebriated people joins in singing Maoz Tsur (Rock of Ages) to a Samba beat. We really love this country.
Today, Liz and I got up at 5:30am, caught an early bus to Jerusalem to attend Joshua's Bar Mitzvah (Becky's friend Jesse's younger brother). Trust me, functioning on 4 1/2 hours sleep with a hangover is a young man's game. Nevertheless, the service was just fine (Joshua davened, read Torah and gave a good speech) The brunch was delicious. This all took place in the Mount Zion Hotel. The hotel doesn't seem to get a lot of buzz. Its built into a hill just down the road from the wall of the Old City. The view alone is worth the 5 stars this place gets in the guides. Family and friends from Israel, New Jersey and Skokie IL gathered together and had a fine old time.
This is not my vacation, this is now how I live.
Happy Holidays to You All. Read more!
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