The Morning After

I've sobered up enough to send out some blogs and get dressed. David M. and Liz have gone off to work. David to Jerusalem on Federation business and Liz to volunteer at a psychology clinic. Its a beautiful day outside. The African-American fellow (Liz says I shouldn't call him "the colored guy") is still the President. (Yeah, I know this fact isn't going to change for the next four years or so but I just enjoy saying it.) Its a warm, sunny day to I'm going to take my book and sit out by the beach. (Have I mentioned the beach?)

The cease fire is holding, which means Hamas has taken to just lobbing mortars at the border crossings and not missiles into Israeli cities. Israeli kids have gone back to school. Reservists are being sent home. Hamas has declared victory and begun a new form of resistance in the name of The People. They now highjack trucks carrying supplies into Gaza. Its unclear if this is to resupply their own people first, to give stuff out and claim its coming from fellow Muslims and not from some evil source like the EU or Israel or just selling to the highest bidders so they can raise cash to buy more Iranian-made munitions. There is a growing sense in Israel that while the Army has redeemed itself, nothing much has changed and so, shortly after the early February elections, Bibi and Lieberman will be running the government. This means that unless Obama's people have some incredible rabbit up their sleeves (or Obama really is Messiah and can perform miracles) settlements will continue to expand and Israel will, sooner or later, re-invade Gaza. Of course, Hamas could stop shelling the crossings, stealing trucks and rearming themselves but that would be way too much to expect. On the smuggling front, the problem is not that Hamas will import tanks, cannons or ever larger missiles. The problem is that pipe used to rebuild water and sewer systems can just as easily be used to make casings for Qassams which will be powered by fuel made with heating oil and gasoline.

In the meantime, I'm going to the beach which I think I have mentioned to you.